England and Core Player Math
We know What Wins and Doesn’t Win in Professional Sports. We know that at the Highest Level, Control Wins. There are different ways to exert control. I would argue that Arsenal Won the Premier League largely on the back of Gabriel, Saliba, and Mikel Arteta’s defensive orientation. That’s how Arsenal exerted control. We’ve seen Spain Dominate Football over the last decade and a half by exerting control through possession. The Knicks Won their First Championship in 53 Years by exerting control through the gravity of an Unstoppable Point Guard. That begs the question, How Does England Exert Control in Football Matches? That begs another question, Can England’s Configuration of Core Players Exert Control in Football Matches?
Who are England’s Core Players? I would argue that England’s Core Players are Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Declan Rice. The Order Matters. Can Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Declan Rice play in the Same XI? Can England Exert Control over Football Matches with Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Declan Rice? It’s important to note here that none of these players have the ability to Exert Control.
Harry Kane’s Superpower is Finishing. Harry Kane’s Other Superpower is dropping deep and releasing the Wide Forwards with his Precision Passing. But Kane’s Finishing is predicated on service. While Kane is very good at dropping deep that can only be a supplement to England’s Style of Play. It isn’t a replicable pattern over 90 Minutes.
Jude Bellingham is a Running Back. Jude Bellingham is a Wide Receiver. Jude Bellingham is a Finisher. While Jude Bellingham played deeper in a 3 at both Birmingham City and Borussia Dortmund, at no point was he a Point Guard. At no point did he dictate play. Instead, he was a Box to Box Player.
Declan Rice is a Box to Box Player. His Energy, His Delivery on Set Pieces, and His Ability to Cover Ground both Vertically and Horizontally is his Superpower. He is by no means a Creative Midfielder or a Regista. Arsenal built a Big Lead with Martin Zubimendi playing that role. Arsenal finished the Season with Myles Lewis-Skelly playing that role.
Let’s Ask the Question Again. If Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Declan Rice are playing in the Same XI, How does England Exert Control over a Football Match?
The Answer is they don’t. They can’t. They aren’t Built to Exert Control. They have to hang on at the end of Football Matches. Because Argentina is Top of Mind, everything comes back to Argentina. The reality is, England Exerted almost no control against much weaker opposition. That’s because England are not constructed to Exert Control with the Ball. They won’t be with Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Declan Rice in the Same XI.
Moving Forward, Thomas Tuchel has to make a Really Tough Decision. Tuchel talked about Building a Team as opposed to just playing his Most Talented Players in the Same XI. But when push came to shove, Tuchel played his Most Talented Players in the Same XI.
Roberto Martinez is derided for Killing Two Golden Generations because he couldn’t bring himself to make Difficult Decisions. With Belgium, Martinez felt the need to play Eden Hazard when Hazard was past his best. With Portugal, Martinez felt the need to play Cristiano Ronaldo when he should have been Building a Football Idea around a Monster Midfield. England of course have their own Demons.
England’s Demon over these last 30 Plus Years has been the ability to Make Difficult Decisions. For Example, Wayne Rooney emerges so now Wayne Rooney and Michael Owen have to play together. Does it make sense as a Duo? It doesn’t matter!!! Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard emerge together and so Lampard and Gerrard have to play together. Does it make sense as a Midfield Two? It doesn’t matter!!!
That’s the Thing, It Does Matter!!!
One More Thing, apart from Lamine Yamal, Pedri is the Poster Boy of Spanish Football. He’s not Starting Here. Instead, it’s Rodri flanked by Dani Olmo and Fabian Ruiz. Could an England Manager make such a decision?